Donald Trump has secured a second term as U.S. president, reigniting debate over the future of America and ensuring busy days ahead for Big Law, according to London-based lawyers.
The Associated Press called the election with 277 electoral votes for Trump at about 10:40 a.m. in London, more than needed to declare victory and considerably more than Vice President Kamala Harris trailing with 224 electoral votes.
“The guys on Wall Street will actually be welcoming a Trump victory,” one London banking partner told Law.com International. “Away from the media coverage and perspective that we get, Trump has always been the pro-business option.”
Other London lawyers expect a protectionist stance from Trump, who believes U.S. companies have been unfairly treated in Europe.
“How he tries to remedy that, what he’s going to do in terms of the Digital Markets Act, is unclear,” Willkie Farr & Gallagher antitrust litigation partner Boris Bronfentrinker said. “There could be some tit-for-tat regulation with other countries. He told the CEO of Apple a couple weeks ago, for example, that he would look into what’s going on between them and the EU.”
In the short term, the markets are likely to welcome a quick and clear result, rather than a protracted period of uncertainty that would unsettle the markets.
But in the longer term, the result “creates a period of uncertainty for businesses and competition law policy because Trump is so unpredictable”, Bronfentrinker said.
Others agreed with this view. “From a foreign policy perspective, a Republican win will bring more volatility and uncertainty, especially when it comes to the unfolding events in the Middle East,” one leading lawyer said. “But the truth is, from a domestic economic perspective, a Trump victory is actually probably good news for the U.S. market—whether we like that or not.”
“The cosmic comedy continues,” another partner added. “He’s big on the idea of keeping everything within U.S. borders—commerce, jobs, R&D etc. So that will mean things like trade wars, rising tariffs, import taxes. He might unilaterally end contracts and trade agreements because of the baseless idea that keeping everything American is better for Americans.”
The Republican victory is not expected to slow down the M&A rebound at the start of 2025, Will Summers, a Gibson Dunn & Crutcher private equity partner, said.
If Trump “follows through with his promise of substantially increasing import tariffs on trade with the U.S., this may impact any business in Europe which exports to the U.S. Conversely, as U.S. exports will be encouraged and supported, any business with significant exports from the U.S-—particularly oil and gas—should stand to benefit,” Summers said.
As congratulations flowed in from the U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer to France’s Emmanuel Macron and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump declared an early victory on Wednesday before most of the U.S. had awakened.
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump said, describing his win as a “magnificent victory”.